Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.981597 2.645349 3.556164 4.932651 7.025094e+00 10.200864 15.625898
2024-12-22 1.401331 2.147339 3.374494 5.676637 1.024337e+01 19.836815 44.862878
2024-12-29 1.062209 1.827386 3.301589 6.690425 1.553482e+01 42.638548 169.802258
2025-01-05 0.817803 1.553054 3.182182 7.723795 2.350545e+01 99.600680 986.241608
2025-01-12 0.595692 1.216833 2.747599 7.735594 3.007381e+01 202.225490 8055.932819
2025-01-19 0.434197 0.938578 2.291299 7.313201 3.562114e+01 395.128718 220321.237857
2025-01-26 0.346290 0.795261 2.116183 7.813153 5.066247e+01 1224.423083 NaN
2025-02-02 0.295697 0.724635 2.122075 9.298969 8.784824e+01 8738.595683 NaN
2025-02-09 0.260409 0.680528 2.198919 11.621722 1.760884e+02 466406.973940 NaN
2025-02-16 0.220838 0.605289 2.108871 12.978203 3.061726e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.181181 0.512368 1.877794 12.858904 4.306685e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.148360 0.429425 1.635198 12.171272 5.508628e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.129391 0.390249 1.592230 13.859235 1.197701e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.112847 0.352921 1.532483 15.473735 2.814647e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.100289 0.325534 1.509099 17.950600 9.262950e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.089147 0.299032 1.470579 20.438723 4.057613e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.076031 0.258947 1.309334 19.633576 9.316559e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.064301 0.220765 1.132864 17.699763 1.475028e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.057231 0.200596 1.069668 18.644556 1.189653e+06 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.053054 0.191813 1.084493 22.499246 9.592032e+12 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.050052 0.187294 1.131654 28.945924 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.045852 0.175317 1.105145 32.541977 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040868 0.157668 1.011734 31.663025 NaN NaN NaN